As the calendar flips from year to year, many organizations and publications roll out lists of predictions about what might happen in the coming year in a particular industry. The process tends to be based more on generating engagement than on substantive progress. Predictions usually end up as debate topics that generate a round of discussions and are forgotten by spring.
The IEEE Computer Society (IEEE CS), however, approaches technology predictions differently. Every year, a large group inside the organization painstakingly brainstorms dozens of predictions, grades them, analyzes them, scrutinizes them, winnows the list down, ranks them, issues a detailed report, and then, a year after the list is released, grades those predictions on how accurate they turn out to be.
The IEEE CS 2024 Tech Predictions, released in January, involved significant contributions by leaders at Hewlett Packard Labs. Dejan Milojicic, HPE Fellow and VP, Software Architecture team, Hewlett Packard Labs, led the IEEE CS’s entire predictions initiative, as he has for the past 15 years. The 46-member committee that worked on the predictions also included two other Labs contributors – Paolo Faraboschi, HPE Fellow and VP, AI Research Lab, and Research Scientist Eitan Frachtenberg – along with another colleague from HPE, Senior Software Systems Engineer Chengappa Munjandira.
“Today’s technology landscape requires collaboration from all stakeholders,” he said. “We see these predictions as a rallying cry for each area of the market to come together to advance a collective vision for these new technologies to better serve humanity.”
The Process Behind the Predictions
The IEEE CS Technology Predictions Committee started with 85 nominations from 46 participants working on seven different continents. The participants voted on each prediction, and Milojicic compiled the data and narrowed the topic list down to 21 emerging technologies. Then the committee judged each on anticipated 2024 metrics, which include potential technology development success, impact to humanity, technological maturity, and market adoption. Each technology received a letter grade and a number rank based on its prospects for 2024.
The 21 predictions extend across industries and technology subject areas, ranging from AI to healthcare to agricultural technology to the cost-effective recycling of electric batteries.
Several predictions fall squarely into areas of focus at Hewlett Packard Labs. These include AI, digital twins, sustainable IT, new programming models, and accessible quantum computing. Here are the predictions themselves and Milojicic’s thoughts about their connections to work going on at Labs.
Generative AI Applications and Next-Generation AI: These are the two top-ranked technologies based on their capacity to experience the most advancement and largest market adoption in the coming year. IEEE CS expects Generative AI use to increase with rapidly expanding efficiency and new applications and services both beneficial and detrimental. Also, the IEEE CS said, the evolving advancements and developments in the field of artificial intelligence that push the boundaries beyond current capabilities.
“AI is becoming what computer science used to be,” Milojicic said. “It’s used everywhere. At Labs we see this taking shape, so we have put a strong focus on the development of responsible and trustworthy AI.”
Digital Twins for Vertical Applications: These applications are expected to advance society’s understanding of operations in a number of industry applications, including data centers, clean energy, medicine, geo-physical hazards, manufacturing, agriculture and transportation.
“Labs has a strong focus on digital twins for data centers, using AI and reinforcement learning to promote sustainability,” Milojicic said. “Digital twins enable you to do what-if analyses and conduct operational oversight to a much greater degree. It’s applied technology that’s very useful.”
New Programming Models: Advances in AI, broader adoption of script-based languages, and further digital transformation into non-programmers’ world is expected to increase ease of development and require new programming models and DevOps, such as serverless, from the edge to cloud.
“To democratize programming, you have to introduce new programming models,” Milojicic said. “We are making great strides at Hewlett Packard Labs with serverless computing and HPC. We see it as one of the true growth areas for the future.”
Sustainable ICT: The IEEE CS expects sustainable information and communication technology (ICT) to evolve by designing, manufacturing, using, and disposing of electronic systems efficiently and effectively for new use cases, with minimal or no impact on the environment.
“Sustainability is becoming one of top properties for every CEO,” Milojicic said. “In terms of computing and business strategy, it is exerting an impact on every decision.”
Accessible Quantum Computing: The IEEE CS projects that technology advances will allow for a greater ability to use quantum computing techniques to increase the efficacy of conventional computing.
“We’re reaching limits on how supercomputers can speed up at and operate cost effectively at scale,” Milojicic said. “We need to continue to come up with alternative technologies. And at Labs we are working with partners and customers on quantum simulations on supercomputers and HPC infrastructure that can move the needle in the future.”
Releasing a Scorecard
In December 2024 the IEEE Computer Society will issue an official scorecard rating the accuracy of this year’s technology predictions. The scorecard on the 2023 predictions tracked the results according to how much more or less significant an impact the technologies had in specific categories than the committee had predicted.
For example, from previous year, the technology that achieved the most surprising degree of positive success in 2023 was Artificial General Intelligence. The technology that lagged most behind what was predicted: 3D printing in personalized healthcare. Other positive surprises: Generative AI and Open Hardware for impact to humanity; and Generative AI and Artificial General Intelligence for both maturity and market adoption in 2023.
Technologies that lagged what the committee predicted included sustainable space manufacturing for impact to humanity, 3D printing in personalized healthcare for maturity, and remote healthcare and wearables for market adoption.
For more discussion of Technology Predictions and Megatrends, listen to the From Research to Reality podcast, where Milojicic interviews Mary Baker, senior research scientist with HP Inc., and Kirk Bresniker, an HPE Fellow and chief architect at Hewlett Packard Labs.
