Back in January, I made eight predictions about tech trends in 2024 and what our OEM partners and their customers should prioritize. Now we’re halfway through the year, summer is heating up, and the world has surprised us as it always does.
Let’s see how accurate my crystal ball was.
1. Internet of Things (IoT)
I was bullish on IoT in January, and I’m even more excited about IoT’s prospects now. At the 2024 NAB Show, content distribution networks and turnkey streaming platforms-as-a-service had a major presence. As the world’s appetite for on-demand entertainment grows, more and more content will be served up on edge servers to ensure minimal latency.
Factory of the Future solutions continue to be a bright spot, especially as enterprises work to extend the benefits of AI into more industrial and factory use cases. Given the complexities of OT/IT integration and the need to manage risk to existing operations, AI in manufacturing will likely be a steady, methodical evolution rather than the immediate revolution the AI cheerleaders are imagining.
2. 5G/Wi-Fi 6
In January, I predicted that 5G and Wi-Fi 6 would coexist for the foreseeable future and that OEMs should develop converged solutions that serve both platforms, not to mention future-proofing customers with Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7 capabilities.
I don’t think the market has judged that prediction yet, so I’ll add a new one. Telco will be a major driver of IoT and edge infrastructure as 5G continues to scale and 5G Advanced protocols bring new support for AI/ML, improved positioning, and proximity services. Look out for more demand for powerful edge computing as providers balance these new workloads with vRAN and other network virtualization functions, network optimization, and energy efficiency.
3. Edge computing
Going into 2024, I was betting on edge computing, and I still am. As IT, OT, and IoT merge, the possibilities for smart systems that can make real-time, machine-speed decisions expand exponentially.
Turning that promise into reality is a different story. The edge needs cloud-native tools and practices—like data virtualization, containers, orchestration, and modern DevOps and MLOps—to succeed. I predict hybrid cloud and edge-native platforms are the key to unlocking the full value of the edge. As I said in January, ISVs and OEMs should be laser-focused on delivering mature, end-to-end edge computing platforms that can automate and orchestrate edge computing services.
4. Artificial intelligence (AI)
What can I say? I predicted—based on the launch of HPE GreenLake for Large Language Models—that AI was on the fast track to enterprise adoption. Since then, new releases of proprietary and open-source models have begun delivering multi-modal services, seeing and understanding their environments, and getting angry letters from Hollywood A-listers.
I would like to adjust my earlier predictions with a note of caution. In a recent report, HPE interviewed more than 2,000 IT leaders from 14 countries about their AI roadmaps. Excitement and investment levels are high, but there are major gaps in implementation strategies, especially around the computing, networking, and compliance management AI requires.
For example, only 7% of organizations can run real-time data pushes/pulls. Just 26% have set up data governance models. And a sobering 22% of IT leaders aren’t involving legal teams in their business’s AI strategy conversations. These are huge holes and glaring risks that all of us—OEMs, ISVs, and integrators—need to help our clients understand and eliminate.
5. Robotics
In January, I mentioned that Agility Robotics had announced plans to mass-produce humanoid robots. That’s still exciting news, but I now think edge computing, networking, and AI are set to merge with robotics and the latest advances in augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) to create new levels of safe, productive human-machine interaction.
AI, especially sensory AI for computer vision and hearing, can help robots track objects and humans in their vicinity. Today, programmatic algorithms direct robots to avoid human contact or shut down in unsafe situations. In the future, generative AI may be able to help industrial robots comprehend their surroundings at a more nuanced level and intervene to prevent dangerous situations.
AR and VR will deliver new virtual tools humans can use to direct and work with robots. Eye and gesture tracking as well as voice commands will become part of the robot-human user experience. Active safety systems in AR/VR devices will likely synch with robotic control systems to give human workers a heads-up if they’re entering a risky situation—like blind spot and lane departure warning systems on newer cars.
6. Augmented and virtual reality
Since I predicted that ever-improving computing and graphics power were set to advance AR and VR experiences, new products have proven me right. Meta and Ray-Ban dropped AR-capable glasses with prices starting under US$300.
Given the rapidly improving variety and quality of AR/VR devices, I hold to my prediction that these technologies will continue to revolutionize multiple industries, especially in healthcare, architecture, engineering, and training. We’re still in the early days, as the latest AR/VR devices demonstrate. Hand controllers are disappearing as gesture tracking improves. Weight and size will continue to decrease as performance increases. I expect AR/VR to follow the historical tech trend from elite experiments to everyday utility.
7. Hybrid by design
I predicted that hybrid-by-design companies would rise throughout 2024 as they realize the increased computing efficiencies and reduced overhead of hybrid infrastructure. As infrastructure consumers, hybrid cloud presents OEMs to balance cost, performance, and capabilities by mixing and matching on-prem, private cloud, and public cloud infrastructure with specific workloads. As manufacturers and service providers, hybrid-cloud ecosystems like HPE GreenLake will provide new markets for products, services, and turnkey solutions.
8. Blockchain
Finally, I predicted that blockchain would play major security and ethical roles in AI as it expands beyond cloud computing services to the edge and IoT devices. The arrival of power-saving, edge processors with built-in AI from Qualcomm, Intel, and others is making the edge and IoT even more capable of running complex AI services.
This only increases the need for the data and identity security blockchain provides. We advise OEMs and other partners to begin exploring blockchain’s role at the device, gateway, and cloud layers—if they haven’t already.
"At six months, I feel like many of my predictions for 2024 hold up. As you plan for the coming quarters, remember our general outlook for the future: success will belong to companies that are edge-centric, cloud-enabled, and data-driven".
Looking Ahead: What else should we be thinking about?
As we move forward into the second half of 2024 and beyond, I would like to throw in a few more things to think about. The rapid pace of innovation means new developments are constantly on the horizon, poised to revolutionize various industries and transform our daily lives. From quantum computing breakthroughs to the expansion of AI - everywhere. Let's see if these 4 cut the mustard with you!
Quantum Computing Advances
Prediction: Quantum computing will make significant strides, with new breakthroughs in quantum algorithms and increased investment in quantum hardware. Major tech companies will announce commercially viable quantum processors that can solve complex problems currently beyond the reach of classical computers. We are already seeing collaborations like this one from Microsoft and Quantinuum.
Why It Matters: Quantum computing has the potential to revolutionize fields like cryptography, materials science, and complex system simulations.
AI-Powered Cybersecurity
Prediction: AI will become increasingly integral to cybersecurity, with new AI-driven tools and platforms being developed to detect and respond to threats in real-time. This will include advancements in anomaly detection, predictive threat intelligence, and automated response systems. If it is on the agenda of the World Economic Forum, you can be sure it is something which is important to understand. Check it out.
Why It Matters: As cyber threats become more sophisticated, the integration of AI in cybersecurity will be crucial for protecting sensitive data and maintaining trust in digital systems.
Human Augmentation Technologies
Prediction: Human augmentation technologies, such as advanced prosthetics, exoskeletons, and brain-computer interfaces, will see significant advancements. These technologies will enhance human capabilities, providing new solutions for disabilities and augmenting physical and cognitive abilities. You only need to look at the market analyst sizing of this market to know how this is going to grow: Innovius Report
Why It Matters: Human augmentation represents a fascinating intersection of technology and biology, offering profound implications for healthcare, labor, and everyday life.
Advanced Biometric Security
Prediction: Biometric security measures will advance beyond fingerprints and facial recognition to include more sophisticated methods such as vein pattern recognition, voice prints, and even DNA-based identification. These technologies will enhance security in financial services, healthcare, and personal devices. This is a great piece by Landy Peng of IDAnalyzer to get into the detail.
Why It Matters: As security concerns grow, more advanced biometric systems will be crucial for ensuring privacy and protecting against identity theft.
If you are looking to advance your industry solutions or digital transformation, we are here to help and look forward to celebrating your successes.
I would love to hear if you agree or disagree with my revised predictions, and the extra ones for the second half. Or, add some predictions of your own in the comments below.
MattQuirk
With a passion for innovation and technology, I am lucky enough to work within high-growth opportunities across multiple industries including manufacturing, healthcare, energy, media and entertainment and security - with technology innovations that are advancing the way people live and work such as AI, autonomous everything and 5G.